How can we determine the timing of selling? I think selling stocks can be considered when the following situations occur.
1. Continuous increase in volume and sudden increase in turnover rate
In an uptrend, when the stock price rises to a certain stage and the cumulative increase exceeds 40%, there is a continuous surge in volume, sometimes for 3-5 consecutive trading days, sometimes for 2 trading days, with a daily turnover rate of over 3%. When the maximum trading volume occurs, the turnover rate often exceeds 10%, which means that the main force is driving up the shipment. If there is a long upper shadow at the close, it indicates a rise and a fall. The next day, the stock price could not recover from the upper shadow line of the previous day, and the trading volume began to shrink, indicating that the market will adjust in the future. In this situation, it is necessary to resolutely sell. Like the trend of FiberHome Communications on July 24th.
2. On the same day, the volume was too high, but the trading volume sharply decreased the next day
Mainly refers to a sudden drop in stock price that leads to a doubling of trading volume, resulting in a sharp decrease of over 50% in trading volume the next day. Such as Guangdong Mingzhu on November 29, 2003 and February 10, 2004; Zhongmu Corporation, July 15, 2002. It can be inferred that the institution is driving up the stock price in order to reduce its holdings or wash up the market. Regardless of whether it is an upward or downward adjustment process, as long as such a situation occurs, it should be resolutely sold.
3. Breaking through important daily moving average indicators
After increasing trading volume, the stock price fell below the 5-day moving average and could not recover for 3-5 trading days. Subsequently, the 5-week moving average was also broken down, and it should be sold resolutely. It is particularly advantageous for those who have just been trapped to quit at this time. If Handan Iron and Steel had already fallen below the 5-day moving average for 3 days without recovery on March 26, and then fell below the 5-week moving average at the end of the day, it should be sold. If the stock price breaks through important moving average indicators such as the 30 or 60 day moving average, it is necessary to resolutely liquidate the position. However, many investors who are trapped often ignore them and find it difficult to make a decision, resulting in deep hedging in the future.
4. Failed to hit the important moving average during rebound
As the stock price declines, a downward channel gradually forms, and the daily and weekly moving averages show a bearish trend. If there is a rebound afterwards and the stock price rises above the 30 or 60 day moving average without stabilizing, then it should be sold resolutely. If the weekly moving average is set at 30, 60, and 90 weeks, we have the same feeling when observing through the weekly lines. For example, the rebound of Zhongfang Investment from February 2001 to September 2003 basically ended around the 30 week moving average.
5. After increasing volume, the stock price remains stagnant at a high level or deviates from the volume price
After a significant increase in stock price accompanied by increased volume, the trading volume significantly shrank, which does not support the rise in stock price. For example, Guangzhou Holdings from April 10-18, 2003, indicated that the pressure of adjustment was constantly increasing. For example, the trend of Jinguo Industry from May 14th to June 3rd, 2003.
6. Sudden bearish events, immediate liquidation is necessary
Never hesitate or fantasize about sudden negative news, as the future trend is unpredictable. For example, Baosteel announced its issuance on August 13, 2004, and its stock price fell by more than 8% on the same day. Therefore, when encountering this situation, it should sell its stocks decisively first.
7. Rapid amplification of transactions in the first time
After a certain period of increase, if the stock price rises rapidly after opening and the trading volume exceeds or approaches the previous trading day in the first 30 and 60 minute charts, it should be sold resolutely because the institution is concentrating on selling at this time. Please refer to the 60 minute chart of Shanghai Meilin on July 16th.
8. Appearing in a double headed form
Recognizing the dual head form is very helpful for grasping the selling points. When the stock price no longer forms a new breakthrough and forms a second head, it should be resolutely sold, because from the first head to the second head, it is the main distribution stage. FAW sedan formed a double headed structure from January 13 to February 26, 2004, and then its stock price fell. Wanneng Power also entered a decline after the emergence of a dual headed pattern from February to April. Although the distance between the two heads varies, the position should be reduced as soon as it appears.