The gold portfolio for long-term investment consists of a combination of sentiment indicator BRAR and index smoothing moving average MACD indicator.
1. Emotional indicator BRAR
The emotion indicator BRAR is composed of a willingness indicator and a popularity indicator.
(1) Willingness indicator BR. The BR indicator, also known as the buying and selling intention indicator, is one of the indicators in the "strength and weakness indicator judgment method". It is a predictive indicator that reflects the degree of market buying and selling intention and predicts the trend of stock changes by using the previous day's closing price as the benchmark and expressing the fluctuation of the market situation with numbers.
Taking the calculation cycle as a day as an example, the calculation formula is:
N days BR=the sum of N days (H-CY) divided by the sum of N days (CY-L)
Among them, H is the highest price of the day, L is the lowest price of the day, CY is the closing price of the previous trading day, N is the set time parameter, and the original parameter day is generally set to the 26th.
Application rules:
① When the BR value is above 300, attention should be paid to the stock price's retracement trend.
② When the BR value is below 50, attention should be paid to the rebound trend of the stock price;
③ The fluctuation of BR value is more sensitive than AR value. When BR value fluctuates between 70-150, it belongs to a consolidation market and should be observed.
④ The rapid rise of AR and BR indicates that the price peak is approaching, and the shareholding should be taken for profit.
⑤ If BR is lower than AR, you can buy at a low price.
⑥ When the BR value is above 400, the stock price may fall back at any time and should be sold at the right time; When the BR value is below 50, the stock price may rebound and rise at any time, so it is advisable to buy at the right time.
⑦ BR is rapidly rising, while AR is consolidating or slightly rebounding, indicating high shipments.
(2) Popularity indicator AR. AR indicator, also known as popularity indicator, is a technical indicator that reflects market buying and selling sentiment by comparing the opening price of a period with the price of that period.
Taking the calculation cycle as a day as an example, the calculation formula is:
N-day AR=the sum of N-day (H-O) divided by the sum of N-day (O-L)
Among them, H is the highest price of the day, L is the lowest price of the day, O is the closing price of the day, and N is the set time parameter. Generally, the original parameter day is set to the 26th.
Application rules:
① The AR value is centered around 100, with a range of ± 20. When the AR value fluctuates between 80-120, it belongs to a consolidation market, and the stock price trend is relatively stable without drastic fluctuations.
② When the AR indicator rises above 150, it is important to note that the stock price will enter a retracement and decline.
③ When the AR is low, it indicates that it is still in a state of consolidation, while when it is too low, it suggests that the stock price has reached a low point and can be intervened. When the AR value drops below 70, the stock price may rebound and rise at any time.
④ A high AR indicates a lively market, while an excessively high AR indicates that the stock price has reached its highest range and needs to be exited. There is no specific standard for the height of AR value. In general, when the AR value rises above 150, the stock price may fall back at any time.
⑤ The AR curve shows a period of buying and selling momentum, and has the function of reaching the peak or falling to the bottom before the stock price. When observing the chart, it mainly relies on experience and is used in conjunction with other technical indicators.
⑥ AR indicators have the leading function of reaching the peak or falling to the bottom of the stock price, and the AR route can show the buying and selling momentum of a certain segment.
(3) The combination of AR and BR indicators:
① In general, AR can be used alone, while BR needs to be used in conjunction with AR to fully utilize its functions.
② The simultaneous rise of AR and BR from low levels indicates that sentiment is beginning to accumulate in the market, and bullish forces are taking advantage. The stock price will continue to rise, and investors can buy or hold stocks in a timely manner.
③ When AR and BR rise from the bottom for a period of time, reach a certain high and stagnate or begin to turn around, it means that the stock price has reached a high level, and shareholders should pay attention to timely profit taking.
④ When BR falls back from a high position and drops by half, if there is no warning signal from AR, it indicates that the stock price is a normal correction and consolidation on the rise, and investors can buy on dips.
⑤ When BR rises rapidly while AR consolidates or slightly rebounds, it should be shipped at a high price.
2. Differences and Similarities in Exponential Smoothing Moving Average MACD
MACD indicator, also known as index smoothing moving average, its principle and application reference: "MACD from Beginner to Proficient"
3. Combination of BRAR and MACD indicators
The golden combination indicator composed of the emotion indicator BRAR and the index smoothing moving average MACD indicator has the following stock selection criteria:
(1) In short to medium term operations, it is generally necessary to choose when both DIFF and MACD are positive, that is, both above the zero axis, indicating a bullish market trend. Only when DIFF breaks through MACD upwards can one buy. But in long-term investment, the application method of MACD indicator is different. At this point, it is necessary to choose negative values for both DIFF and MACD, that is, both below the zero axis. Before the trend strengthens, if DIFF breaks through MACD upwards, active position preparation can be made.
(2) Below the zero axis, DIFF must break through MACD at least twice.
(3) During the period when DIFF breaks through MACD multiple times and the BR indicator falls below 50 or 90 at least once, the BR indicator crosses the AR indicator upwards.
(4) The time interval between two golden crosses of MACD should not be too long, and the stock price should not differ significantly. If the stock price has already surged significantly during the second golden cross, long-term investors need to look for another target.
