A single long bullish candlestick generally implies a strong bullish sentiment in the stock market, but in fact, as far as the single long bullish candlestick itself is concerned, it cannot be simply used for trend judgment or buy signal judgment. In the stock market, many investors become trapped in historical highs after chasing after a single long bullish candlestick. How to determine the significance of the Changyang Line? I will talk about my practical experience in the stock market. Although we have not yet delved into the theories of form, quantity and energy, and moving average, we will gradually introduce these theories in our practical explanations, so as to ultimately obtain the overall technical theory and achieve the goal of comprehensive analysis.
The judgment of a long buy signal for a single bullish candlestick needs to be combined with two aspects of information:
One is that it must be judged in combination with the technical form. The so-called combination judgment with the technical form includes two situations. The first is that only when a stock starts from the bottom and follows the first long bullish line, can it seize the signal in time to enter and have a good spread; The second is that after the startup, the increase was not large and immediately entered the horizontal market for consolidation. After the adjustment time in the box was long enough, the first Changyang line appeared. Timely follow-up should also have better short-term returns. For example, the high volume launch of the Second Textile Machinery (600604) on May 12th and October 26th resulted in the appearance of long bullish lines under two different technical forms, which provided a good short-term opportunity for individual stocks during trading.
Secondly, there must be confirmation of quantity and energy. Everyone knows the principle of "quantity before price" in the stock market, but few people can truly observe the quantity before the price in real trading, or have difficulty grasping the standards for volume trading in real trading. In practical experience, it is necessary to confirm the volume of a single unit on the second trading day, especially when the volume of a single unit is too large, and the subsequent volume may not be able to keep up. Therefore, for investors, excessive volume is not a good thing; Secondly, the standard for increasing trading volume is generally compared to the previous period's average trading volume. Only by enlarging at least 40% of the individual stocks based on the previous period's average trading volume can they be considered as "increasing trading volume".
The third question is how a single long yang line can be accompanied by a gap. It is necessary to analyze in conjunction with fundamentals, that is, whether there are positive themes in the fundamentals. If it is the support of positive themes that leads to the emergence of long bullish lines that jump upwards, combined with the analysis of individual stock prices, we will find that low-priced individual stocks are likely to achieve short-term value mining under the stimulation of fundamental information; On the contrary, if a stock simply jumps short and opens high out of the long yang line, investors need to track whether there is a trend to fill the gap at any time during the trading session. If the trend of the stock does not show any intention of filling the gap, then they should firmly hold on to the long position. For example, Da Shang Group (600694) experienced a long bullish candlestick after a short opening on October 16th. Although the profit taking at the end of the day left an upper shadow, the impact on the subsequent trend of the stock was not significant, and the overall upward trend of the stock has been established.
The fourth is the bullish effect of short-term moving averages. Although we have not yet explored the theory of moving averages, in terms of short-term trends, moving averages still have a significant impact on the trend after the appearance of the Long Yang Line. When the 5-day, 10 day, and 30 day moving averages show a bullish trend, individual stocks will have better short-term opportunities. However, due to the time lag of moving averages themselves, relying solely on moving averages for judgment is obviously not very advantageous. After the appearance of the Long Yang Line, we should observe the trend of the moving averages at all times. Once the moving averages show a downward trend accompanied by a contraction in volume and energy, it is believed that the short-term upward momentum is weakening, and investors should be prepared to exit at any time.
Judging the buying signal of a single long bullish candlestick
A single long bullish candlestick generally implies a strong bullish sentiment in the stock market, but in fact, as far as the single long bullish candlestick itself is concerned, it cannot be simply used for trend judgment or buy signal judgment. In the stock market, many investors become trapped in historical highs after chasing after a single long bullish candlestick. How to determine the significance of the Changyang Line? I will talk about my practical experience in the stock market. Although we have not yet delved into the theories of form, quantity and energy, and moving average, we will gradually introduce these theories in our practical explanations, so as to ultimately obtain the overall technical theory and achieve the goal of comprehensive analysis.
The judgment of a long buy signal for a single bullish candlestick needs to be combined with two aspects of information:
One is that it must be judged in combination with the technical form. The so-called combination judgment with the technical form includes two situations. The first is that only when a stock starts from the bottom and follows the first long bullish line, can it seize the signal in time to enter and have a good spread; The second is that after the startup, the increase was not large and immediately entered the horizontal market for consolidation. After the adjustment time in the box was long enough, the first Changyang line appeared. Timely follow-up should also have better short-term returns.
Secondly, there must be confirmation of quantity and energy. In the stock market, the principle of "quantity and price ratio come first" is widely known. If you grasp the opportunity of high returns, it is equivalent to digging a gold mine.
As the end of June approaches, the logic of speculation leading to conversion has always been relatively certain for mid year and annual reports. The mid year market is about to kick off. Here are six important issues related to high conversion and how to seize such opportunities. Here, we will summarize and organize them for everyone.
The Three Stages of High Delivery Conversion Speculation
High delivery and conversion expectations hype, power grabbing hype, and power filling hype
How to explore and seize opportunities for high turnover?
Mining from the perspective of financial data; Digging into the situation of shareholders; Explore from the perspective of the industry; From the perspective of industrial capital operation.
High yield conversion under the mid year market trend
1、 The logic of speculation leading to conversion has always been relatively certain in mid year and annual reports.
Caixin Development, which had a high turnover rate in its annual report last year, saw a maximum increase of over 200%.
Last year's mid year report, AiKang Technology and Rainbow Refinement, both of which had high conversion rates, showed very impressive performance after releasing their high conversion rates. This year, companies such as Jinlun Shares, Yantang Dairy, and Armaton have risen very beautifully in terms of pre high returns. High sending transfer rights, such as Mingjiahui, Tianrun Shuyu, Rongsheng Supermicro, etc., have all risen beautifully. So, mastering the high delivery speed is equivalent to digging a gold mine.
From today on, a new cycle begins. Please carefully appreciate every detail of this cycle. This is like flowers every year, but people are different from year to year.
Why are high conversion themes popular in the market?
1. After high dividend conversion, the stock price decreases, and investors will have a greater desire to buy stocks;
2. Increased liquidity, conducive to the layout of large funds;
3. The company's introduction of a high dividend distribution plan indicates that the management is confident in the sustained growth of the company's performance, and the company has a desire to expand its market value, which enhances investor confidence.
The Three Stages of High Delivery Conversion Speculation
Speculation can be divided into three stages: high delivery expectations speculation, power grabbing speculation, and power filling speculation. Generally speaking, in one of the three stages, there is a significant increase after speculation, and it is not easy for other stages to recover from the market. Only a few stocks can recover from multiple market stages.
Phase 1: High expected conversion hype.
The hype of high annual report conversion expectations usually starts from the end of October each year and lasts until mid December. The hype surrounding the expectation of high conversion rates in mid year reports usually starts at the end of April each year and lasts until mid June.
Yantang Dairy, due to factors such as high capital reserve per share and undistributed profit per share, has a high probability of high dividend payouts and has become a leader in the expected speculation of high dividend payouts. Since November, in just 7 late trading days, the increase has reached 90%.
The second stage: the period of seizing power and speculation.
Some companies may pre disclose high dividend payouts, but it should be noted that the earlier the announcement is made and the more "dividend payouts" and "payouts" there are, the more likely it is to become a benchmark in the market.
For example, Mingjiahui announced a 10 to 15 conversion plan on July 28th, and August 22nd was the equity registration date. Before the ex rights and ex dividend on August 23rd, there was a wave of power grabbing market.
On the evening of the 17th, it was announced that Yonghe Intelligent Control is of this type.
The third stage: the ex rights and ex dividend filling market.
For example, Baode Shares, which received high annual reports last year, continuously rose to the limit up as a benchmark for rights filling, which also stimulated various forms of rights filling and grabbing at that time.
Part Four: New Features of High Delivery Transfer
According to the old tradition of A-shares, high dividend conversion themes have once again become the focus of market speculation, favored by institutions, speculative investors, and retail investors. Dao, but in actual trading operations, few people can truly achieve the principle of looking at quantity first and then looking at price, or have difficulty grasping the standards of volume expansion in actual trading. In practical experience, it is necessary to confirm the volume of a single unit on the second trading day, especially when the volume of a single unit is too large, and the subsequent volume may not be able to keep up. Therefore, for investors, excessive volume is not a good thing; Secondly, the standard for increasing trading volume is generally compared to the previous period's average trading volume. Only by enlarging at least 40% of the individual stocks based on the previous period's average trading volume can they be considered as "increasing trading volume".
The third question is how a single long yang line can be accompanied by a gap. It is necessary to analyze in conjunction with fundamentals, that is, whether there are positive themes in the fundamentals. If it is the support of positive themes that leads to the emergence of long bullish lines that jump upwards, combined with the analysis of individual stock prices, we will find that low-priced individual stocks are likely to achieve short-term value mining under the stimulation of fundamental information; On the contrary, if a stock simply jumps short and opens high out of the long yang line, investors need to track whether there is a trend to fill the gap at any time during the trading session. If the trend of the stock does not show any intention of filling the gap, then they should firmly hold on to the long position.
The fourth is the bullish effect of short-term moving averages. Although we have not yet explored the theory of moving averages, in terms of short-term trends, moving averages still have a significant impact on the trend after the appearance of the Long Yang Line. When the 5-day, 10 day, and 30 day moving averages show a bullish trend, individual stocks will have better short-term opportunities. However, due to the time lag of moving averages themselves, relying solely on moving averages for judgment is obviously not very advantageous. After the appearance of the Long Yang Line, we should observe the trend of the moving averages at all times. Once the moving averages show a downward trend accompanied by a contraction in volume and energy, it is believed that the short-term upward momentum is weakening, and investors should be prepared to exit at any time.
Let's do some analysis together:
Firstly, the new small market value. It's just that the market value is small, which is the core of the concept speculation in the Chinese stock market. During the trading session, similar to the hundreds of billions of yuan of Bank of China, retail investors and speculative funds are not easy to hit the limit up, while small funds are easy to rise.
Secondly, hot concepts. This is the main theme, which is whether the performance is good or not, but the story is good. In recent years, the main hype has been fierce, mainly focusing on high conversion rates for virtual reality, charging piles, and online games. Overall, having a story is better than having no story, mainly because it allows people to have imagination. This is called high bonus conversion, which is actually the buy one get one free policy in daily life, so high bonus conversion tends to stimulate short-term stock prices. The previous round of Kunlun Wanwei, Guanghua Technology, and Longjin Pharmaceutical was like this.
Finally, the behavior of major shareholders. This is not a new thing either. If the major shareholder lifts the ban, someone needs to help, so the ban should be granted to some institutions. so what? Pull it up, make up a story, pull it up again, you can walk away from a high position. Private placement and unlocking of major shareholders both require certain operations.
Seize the opportunity of high transfer rates
Firstly, from the perspective of financial data mining:
1) Housing Provident Fund: The higher the amount, the better. Generally, it is required to be greater than 3 yuan (with a basic transfer fee).
2) Undistributed profit: The higher the better, generally requiring a profit of more than 2 yuan (based on the transfer).
3) Return on equity: greater than 10% (a sign of company growth).
4) Total share capital: The total share capital is less than 200 million, and the circulating share capital is less than 100 million.
5) Market value: If the market value is less than 8 billion, there is great potential for conversion.
6) Stock price: Greater than 60 yuan has great potential for conversion.
Secondly, mining from the shareholders' situation:
1) The major shareholder or controlling shareholder is an individual or a private enterprise.
2) The major shareholder or controlling shareholder holds a high proportion of shares.
3) The top ten circulating shareholders include Niu San and large private equity funds.
4) The number of shareholder accounts is gradually decreasing (chips are constantly concentrated).
Thirdly, from the perspective of the industry:
Emerging industries have a higher probability of conversion compared to traditional industries, and the probability of becoming bull stocks after conversion is also higher.
1) Software; 2) Information technology; 3) New energy; 4) New materials; 5) General machinery; 6) Chemical industry.
Fourthly, from the perspective of industrial capital operation:
1) Before mergers and acquisitions, there is generally no high conversion rate. However, after mergers and acquisitions, especially when acquiring or injecting high-quality assets, financial consolidation leads to a significant increase in performance, there is a high probability of high conversion rate.
2) It is worth noting that in the case of a large proportion of stock pledges by major shareholders or controlling shareholders of listed companies, there is a high probability of high transfer before the stock pledges are fully recovered.
3) The probability of shares being released for distribution is high, reflecting the demand of industrial capital behind listed companies.
