The most complex and difficult thing to judge in the game between retail investors and market makers is whether the market makers are selling or just washing up during the upward trend. How can we better distinguish the difference between the two? We believe that a better judgment can only be made through the cooperation of several aspects, rather than just shouting that the main force is selling at the sight of a negative volume. This is really foolish.
Firstly, we need to look at the hourly chart of the day. If it is a shipment, the intraday minute chart generally has the following characteristics:
1. The volume is chaotic, with non-stop movements of increasing volume throughout the day, and whether it's pulling up or killing down, it releases huge amounts. This indicates that the main force is no longer controlling the stock price by knocking on the chips in their hands, but is actually making selling actions.
2. In the time-sharing chart, there is a terrifying diving waveform, where a wave of diving kills the stock price by at least 5 points, and when a diving occurs, it carries a huge amount. After the plunge, the stock price did not have the motivation to return to its original position in a short period of time.
3. The moving average system of the day creates great pressure, and after a plunge, it is almost difficult to stand on the moving average again. Even if there is a false pull that breaks through the moving average during the day, as long as it breaks through the moving average, there will be a large number of selling orders, which will once again drive down the stock price, making it impossible for the stock price to even sideways on the moving average.
If there is a sharp decline on the same day and a historical high volume is released, the possibility of the main force selling at full capacity is even greater.
Secondly, we need to take a look at the daily candlestick chart. The distribution of chips during washing and shipping may also vary:
If it is a wash, about 10% of the chips at the bottom usually sink below and do not move upwards; And for shipment, almost all the chips at the bottom have been moved to the new chip distribution area.
2. If it is a wash up, the main force will build a new platform to prepare for the next effort; And for shipments, the low point keeps moving downwards, creating a continuous trumpet shape.
Thirdly, we need to look at the daily K-line.If the main force starts to sell, a true downward channel will be formed in the early stages of the decline. Every time it pulls back to the upper track of this channel, it will inevitably be suppressed and form a long upward shadow. This channel often lasts for a long time.
Fourthly, it also depends on several important supports.To distinguish between liquidation and shipment, it is also necessary to consider the extent to which the stock price hits several important support levels. Including the important support levels such as the 20 day average and the channel line during the early rally process, if it is a wash up, the main players generally will not break through because the cost of breaking through is too high, but there is no consideration for this aspect in shipping.
Fifth, finally look at the space.The main force is washing the market, and generally the stock price will not drop by more than 30%. If it exceeds 30%, too many low-level chips will be sold, and the nature will change. Therefore, if it is not a shipment, it will also become a shipment.