The highest level of operation pursued by investors is always' buy and go up '.
Although some people warn us not to rush into buying stocks, in reality, people always hope that the stocks they buy will rise immediately. From the perspective of profit seeking and risk avoidance, buying quickly leads to a rise, which can quickly eliminate risks. At the same time, quick profits can also boost mood and confidence. So, no matter how much others advise you, finding investment opportunities that go up as soon as you buy still has great appeal.
In theory, any big bull stock will have a "critical point" where it will rise but not rise, just like boiling water. Before boiling, there will always be some signs, such as being angry first. Although it is difficult to grasp the critical point, since it is an objective existence, we can find clues.
The rise and fall of stock prices ultimately boils down to a monetary phenomenon. After selecting investment targets, how to grasp the timing of intervention and achieve the investment realm of "buying and rising" ultimately depends on seizing opportunities from the perspective of capital intervention. Based on the author's market experience, stocks that rise as soon as they are bought have some common characteristics in terms of capital intervention trajectory. To summarize and generalize these common characteristics, there are generally three clues: first, stocks that rise as soon as they are bought, which are stocks in which new funds are involved; Secondly, the intervention of new funds is continuous and has a scale; Thirdly, this type of financial intervention must be proactive, not passive.
To implement specific viewing and analysis techniques and capture the critical point of whether the market will rise or not, we can start from the following three aspects.
(1) The bottom shape is an important indicator of new capital intervention. As long as a stock maintains a certain price, there must be funds "supporting" it, otherwise the price will become zero. But whether the funds supporting the stock price are old funds or new funds, their value for its future rise and fall is completely different. The old funds are left inside, and the situation is completely passive. You don't know if you want to keep them or if they can be cashed out at any time. But the situation with the new funds is completely different. Since it has come in, the purpose is of course to keep pushing up the stock price. So, it is of great significance to analyze whether the old or new funds are maintaining the stock price through market analysis. Simply put, we should follow the new funds.
The bottom shape is an important criterion for determining whether there is new capital intervention. When will the stock price stop falling and build a bottom pattern as funds continue to flow out? Only when new funds come in can the decline in stock prices be stopped. In theory, the entry of new funds will inevitably leave traces of entry, which will also cause significant "disturbance" to the trend of stock prices. The most typical scenario of this disturbance is the appearance of a bottom shape. The driving force behind the long-term decline and the construction of a true bottom form must come from new funds, but it does not mean that new funds will only intervene at the bottom. Once the position is established, new funds will continue to be injected and drive up the stock price. What we want to emphasize is that the entry of new funds will definitely have a bottom form. So, in order to pursue the investment realm of "rising as soon as you buy", the probability of finding stocks with obvious bottom patterns is relatively higher.
As for what is the bottom shape, it is a matter of technical analysis, including V-shaped bottom, double bottom, head and shoulder bottom, triple bottom, hidden bottom, and so on.
(2) A moderate and orderly increase in volume is a symbol of the scale and sustained involvement of funds. Even if new capital comes in, whether this capital can end the decline in stock prices and bring about a sustained upward trend, whether this capital has sufficient strength, and whether it firmly enters the market all the way, is of particular significance. So, in addition to finding the "traces" of new funds entering the market, it is also necessary to determine the strength and direction of operation of such funds. The strength of funds is mainly grasped through changes in the relationship between price and quantity.
After the bottom is formed, the changes in trading volume usually reveal the operational intentions and strength of new funds. Generally speaking, a moderate, orderly, and sustained increase in volume usually indicates that this type of funding is well prepared, strong, and has a firm goal. On the contrary, if the fluctuation of trading volume presents an irregular or pulsating state, this new capital may just make a profit and leave, or the situation may change and the new capital will no longer play with this stock. The irregular fluctuations and drastic fluctuations in trading volume usually reflect the nature of funds as short-term "river crossing dragons" or very limited strength.
It is an important method to determine whether new funds have the strength to enter the market, or whether they are determined to go long after entering the market, by grasping the fluctuation curve of trading volume. A perfect, smooth, and gentle upward curve in trading volume usually indicates that new funds have sufficient strength and confidence to drive an uptrend. To use the phrase 'military enthusiast', to judge the performance of a fighter jet, one can see if its appearance is perfect, which gives a general understanding. After the appearance of a bottom pattern, coupled with a perfect upward curve in trading volume, the probability of "rising as soon as you buy" will greatly increase.
(3) To determine whether fund intervention is active or passive, it mainly depends on the shape of a single candlestick. There is new capital coming in, and the strength of the new capital is also considerable. The next problem is to find the "perfect moment" that is about to be launched but has not yet been launched. Entering too early is useless, because maybe you won't make it to the day of liberation; It's too late to enter, and the stock price has risen by a large margin, which is usually the most profitable period. The shape of a single K-line is of particular importance in capturing the timing of initiation.
Generally speaking, when there is a bottom pattern and trading volume coordination, there is usually a tentative attack process for funds to launch a total attack, which is also known as the "trial market" process. This kind of trial will leave traces on the daily candlestick. For example, the upper shadow line of the day is relatively long, or the daily K-line forms a small yin and small yang cross star state. Especially the probing of the upper shadow line after the formation of the bottom, which is often a very obvious test signal. Generally speaking, the appearance of an upper shadow line after the bottom pattern is an important signal that the market may start at any time. The probing of the sharp soldiers at the bottom has obvious significance as a starting gun for seizing the moment of "buying and rising", and deserves full attention.
For investors, the quickest thing is to immediately enjoy the joy of making money after buying. If we start from the three aspects mentioned earlier, the probability of achieving an immediate increase in investment level can be greatly improved.
Firstly, capture strong stocks at any time. The adjustment and sharp decline of the overall market are not relative to all individual stocks. 'There are bull stocks in bear markets, and bear stocks in bull markets' is the viewpoint that has been discussed the most in previous comments. Generally speaking, the main characteristics that give birth to the market trend of individual stocks during a sharp decline are that the main funds are trapped, the fundamentals of individual stocks are good, and strong individual stocks have a unique style. These types of individual stocks are important components of strong stocks in the market. Investors can search for stocks that frequently enter the top 50 of the two markets' price increase charts, especially when there is no high volume opportunity to quickly chase after them and escape before the main force hits and releases.
Secondly, the significance of short-term operations is that they must be able to capture hot topics and leaders. If the stocks in the market do not belong to mainstream hotspots and leaders, they will almost always be in a trend of adjustment and decline. The essence of short-term traders is to be able to dance with and walk with Zhuang through their unique technical advantages.
Thirdly, the method of short-term trading can avoid the risk of market adjustment as much as possible. For long-term value investors, they may disdain such practices, believing that they do not want to make big money, but artificially increase systemic risk. Some critics believe that true short-term traders are those who actively use their technical abilities to open up new battlefields in order to avoid participating in the adjustment of uncertain factors in the trend. It is common for any long-term investor to see their early profits ruthlessly swallowed up in the face of a huge decline in the market, and using short-term trading methods can help them avoid this risk as much as possible.
Fourthly, as long as the upward momentum of a stock disappears, especially if there is an abnormal increase in trading volume, regardless of its performance or fundamental situation, it must exit - this is the steel like discipline of short-term trading.
Fifth: There is early chasing when there is a rise, and early killing when there is a fall. Generally speaking, the launch of any stock has the potential for an upward momentum due to inertia. When an opportunity to break through is confirmed, it is necessary to make a decisive move. The timing of this move should be in the early stages, at the beginning of the outbreak, otherwise it may give the market makers a helping hand. If the stock price does not rise but falls after buying, it indicates that you have made a judgment error, or it can also be understood as the main force playing tricks to deceive you. At this time, once you realize that you have made a mistake in judgment, you must be brave enough to quickly correct it. This is not only a professional short-term expert technique, but also the most important basic skill, also known as the key to mentality.
