In fact, it is not easy to recognize the existence of risks when playing stocks because the manifestations of stocks are too complex, but Texas Hold'em is different. Each of us can use skills like the main players in the stock market to apply strategies and achieve the goal of misleading opponents. Relatively speaking, the stock market is very unfair. We can only be attacked by others with strategies, but we cannot actively take action against the main force. The only thing we can do is to rely on our ability to identify and judge the tactics of the main force.
How to determine whether the dealer is washing the market or selling?
1. Vibration amplitude: The washing of stocks is generally small, and the shipment is generally large; When washing up the market, the market makers suppress it, so the stock price will quickly decline, but there will be support below. If the market maker wants to sell, it will quickly rise, and there will be obvious stagflation above.
2. The profit margin of the market maker is generally less than 20% for liquidation, and more than 50% or even 100% for shipment;
3. The ratio of trading volume between external and internal markets on the same day: The trading volume between internal and external markets is similar during the washout period, and there are usually more internal markets than external markets when shipping, and there are often large sell orders;
4. Transaction volume: The washing transaction volume gradually decreases, and the shipment volume can remain at a relatively high level.
5. Divergent trend of moving averages: It still shows an upward divergent trend during market washout, and the bullish alignment remains unchanged; Has been damaged during shipment or has started to decline;
6. Whether to protect the market: Washing the market is generally ineffective in breaking the 10 day moving average in the low to medium price range, and ineffective in breaking the 20 day moving average in the high to medium price range; Generally, shipments will quickly break through short-term moving averages such as 5 and 10 days, and cross at high levels.
Specific judgment
(1) The stock price fell sharply, approaching the limit down at one point. When it reached its lowest point, some volume was released, and half of it was recovered at the end of the day. The candlestick pattern was similar to a "hanging neck", but the next day, the trading area of the entire day was basically 5% higher than the previous day's lowest price. This indicates that the previous day's low decline was a panic market, not a market maker selling.
(2) If the volume in the morning is twice that of the afternoon when the stock is falling, it means that after the opening of the market every morning, due to the T+1 trading system, people who tried to rebound in the short term the day before saw that the market was going bad and the stock had no hope of rebounding, so they left in the morning. But if it's really the dealer who ships, won't the dealer ship this afternoon? If the shipment is really fast, the better. In the afternoon, when the market reaches a low level, the dealer will be more active in selling, at least the dealer will not be soft handed in the afternoon. Therefore, the reverse proves that this situation is often a case of dish washing.
(3) When the stock price drops to a critical position, there are often large sell orders with significant impact. However, the decline in stock price slows down, indicating that the large sell orders are actually reversed by the market makers, with the aim of attracting retail investors to sell. However, if there are really sell orders, the market makers will accept them at a low level, and the stock price will naturally not fall rapidly. Sometimes there are large orders at a certain price point that have not been executed for a long time, and if the dealer sells, they will have already targeted the buying market.
(4) When it falls, the market is weak and there is no rebound, causing the stock price to fall almost parallel to the moving average. If the market maker really sells, they will definitely take advantage of the rebound of the market to boost the stock price during the trading session, so that the market maker can sell more chips while maintaining the stock price. However, without even this action, the market maker intentionally shows weakness and hopes that others will sell while they quietly buy. Especially at the end of the day, market makers can pull the stock price back to the moving average with 20000 to 30000 shares, and the selling market makers won't even make this effortless move.
(5) When the market weakens, it refuses to fall and instead crosses at a key price point, with a daily decrease in volume. This indicates that short-term trading is becoming less and less frequent, and market makers are not far away from boosting the stock price. Although the strength of the rally cannot be determined, blindly cutting meat is unwise, at least a rebound is imminent.
(6) If the market maker has daily movements during the sideways trend of the stock price, such as rising twice a day, it is very knowledgeable - the market maker can achieve multiple goals at once: first, try the market to see how to follow the trend and sell when it rises, so that the market maker can have an estimation and judgment of the timing of the rise; second, be a foodie, the stock price rises and falls, attracting many short-term customers, and short-term trading is the most unstable chip. If there is even a slight movement, these short-term chips are easily shaken out by the market and become something in their possession; The third is to wash the market, even if the banker does not receive these chips, the chips will change from the mid line to the short line. After such a turnover, it is also beneficial for the banker's future rise; Finally, it is to erode the patience of shareholders. If you repeatedly see the stock price surge and then come back, your patience will be greatly reduced. When it really surges again, you will be eager to sell.
(7) When trading sideways, the key price level remains unchanged. For example, during the last three limit up periods, the lower edge of the large turnover area was 10 yuan, and the stock price cannot fall below this level. Because if this position breaks through, it means that those who sold during the nearly 10 million share turnover have the opportunity to make up for it. Therefore, the fourth limit up for the short position of these people by the market maker is meaningless - everyone needs to make up for it. How will the market maker raise in the future? But it's different when the dealer actually ships. Market makers who sell sideways at high positions often only make a candlestick move at the end of the day, leaving one or more "hanging ghosts" with long shadows above the candlestick, but it is difficult to hide the reduction of positions during trading.
(8) The response to individual stock news is calm. After the announcement was made, trading remained light after the afternoon resumption of trading. At that time, other stocks in the same sector were surging, but the turnover of the stock still shrank to the ground level. This at least indicates that the chips are stable and there is almost no difference in dealing with long and short news. If the goal of the market maker is to sell, there will be good news, but the stock price will not increase despite the good news, which is the behavior of the market maker selling stocks. When the market makers wash the market, they try every means to shake people's confidence, and when it comes to shipping, they will numb people with the best prospects.
