The stock market is constantly changing, with the overall trend fluctuating up and down. Investors are facing a very complex market. Investors in this market are influenced by various factors when selecting stocks. Some factors are beneficial for investors to make investment decisions, while others can have a negative impact on their decisions. Many new investors, due to a lack of experience, are often confused and at a loss when facing such a complex market; Some veteran investors often cannot make correct judgments on the trend of the overall market.
Today, the author will edit this article to help investors learn how to observe the changes in stock prices in the market and time charts, master the viewing skills of the market in different time periods, and make comprehensive judgments by combining K-line charts and other knowledge, in order to better assist their investment operations.
1、 Plate surface
Simply put, the market is the situation, which is a term used to calculate the outcome or judge the situation. In the stock market, the market surface refers to the candlestick chart and trading volume bar chart.
2、 Watch the market
If investors want to grasp market trends, they need to learn to look at the overall market. Simply put, watching the market means keeping an eye on the market. Normally, investors should pay attention to the following points when looking at stocks.
1: At the opening, it is important to consider the stock price and trading volume of the call auction, whether it is a high opening or a low opening
Call auction represents the market's willingness and is a manifestation of whether investors expect the stock price to rise or fall on that day.
2: You can see the direction of stock price changes within half an hour of opening
If the stock price opens too high, it may fall back within half an hour; If the stock price opens too low, it may rebound within half an hour.
3: Check the size of the trading volume
If the stock opens high but does not fall back, and the trading volume increases, then this stock is likely to rise.
4: Check the stock price
In general, when looking at stock prices, one should not only consider the current price, but also the closing price of the previous day, the opening price of the day, the current high and low prices, the magnitude of the rise and fall, etc., in order to see where the current stock price is and whether there is buying value.
5: Check the current hand count and cumulative current hand count
For a stock, the most recent trading volume is called spot trading, and the trading volume from opening to immediate trading is called total trading. The current hand count indicates the size of the transaction volume that the computer just automatically executed. If there are consecutive large transactions, it indicates that multiple people are buying and selling the stock, which is worth paying attention to. If no one buys for half a day, then the stock is unlikely to become a good stock. And the cumulative number of current lots is the total number of lots, also known as trading volume. Stocks with high trading volume and rising prices generally have a positive trend. The sustained low trading volume usually occurs during bear markets or stock consolidation stages, with inactive market trading. Trading volume is an important basis for judging stock trends, sometimes even more important than stock prices, providing an important basis for retail investors to analyze the behavior of market makers. In practical operation, investors should closely monitor stocks with abnormal fluctuations in trading volume.
In addition, the ratio of the total number of shares to the number of outstanding shares is called the turnover rate, which indicates how many shareholders bought on the same day. Generally speaking, "turnover rate", also known as "turnover rate", refers to the frequency of stock transactions in the market within a certain period of time, and is one of the important indicators reflecting the strength of stock liquidity. There are different types of indicators for turnover rate based on the nature of the sample population, such as the total turnover rate of all listed stocks, turnover rate based on the issuance quantity of a single stock, and turnover rate based on the portfolio held by a certain institution. A high turnover rate indicates that there are many people buying and selling the stock, and the stock price is prone to rise, making it a popular stock; On the contrary, the lower the turnover rate of a stock, the less attention it receives and the less popular it is.
A high turnover rate generally means that the stock has good liquidity and is relatively easy to enter and exit the market. There will be no phenomenon of wanting to buy but not being able to buy or sell, and it has strong liquidity. However, it is worth noting that stocks with high turnover rates are often the target of short-term capital pursuit, with strong speculation, significant fluctuations in stock prices, and relatively high risks. It should be pointed out that if it is not a newly listed stock with a huge turnover rate (over 50%), its stock price often falls the next day, so it is best not to buy.
In practical operation, investors can observe the trend of stock prices by combining turnover rate. Generally speaking, if the turnover rate of a stock suddenly increases and the trading volume also shows an amplification state, it can indicate that investors are buying in large quantities, and the stock price may rise accordingly. If a stock continues to rise for a period of time, and the turnover rate increases rapidly in a short period of time, it can generally be considered that some profit seekers are trying to cash out, and the stock price may fall.
6: Observe whether the trend of the stocks held in your hands is consistent with the overall market
If the trend is consistent, investors should pay special attention to the overall market, sell when the stock price reaches its peak, and buy when the stock price drops to its bottom.
3、 Viewing skills
Generally speaking, there are several techniques for stock market observation, including:
1. Stocks with high trading volume are starting to weaken, or popular sectors in the previous stock market are weakening. Retail investors should be cautious that the market is nearing its end.
2. Stocks are generally weak, and when the hot spots disappear in the market and new market hotspots have not yet emerged, do not easily buy stocks.
When the trading volume repeatedly reaches sky high levels and the stock price does not increase significantly, distribution should be considered at any time; On the contrary, when trading volume is extremely low, do not easily sell stocks.
If there is an ideal match between price and volume in the 5-minute trading details of the market, then it is optimistic about the future market. Otherwise, caution should be exercised.
If the trading volume is too small in the morning, there is a greater chance of a rebound in the afternoon; If the morning is too big, there is a high probability of a decline in the afternoon.
6. The opening numbers tend to pull the stock price upwards, but if the moving average does not keep up later, it often ends up in failure on the same day.
7. The increase is between 5% and 7%, with the internal market being larger than the external market. The high point keeps innovating, and the low point keeps rising, indicating that there are market makers buying.
8. It is best for general investors to choose to operate in the afternoon. The reason is that during afternoon operations, there is a reliance on the morning market and the use of a 60 minute candlestick analysis provides better reliability.
4、 The method to successfully view the market
For investors, looking at stocks is related to the success or failure of their investment, as well as the gain or loss of future profits, so it must be given sufficient attention. Generally speaking, investors need to grasp the following methods in order to successfully view the market.
1. Pay attention to trends
Investors need to closely monitor changes in the overall market trend. According to the channel theory, stock prices generally follow a certain trend until significant changes occur in policy and macroeconomic factors, at which point this trend will gradually change. It should be noted that the change in trend is not achieved overnight, due to the influence of inertia.
Simply put, according to the principles of physics, channel theory refers to the idea that an object will maintain uniform linear motion without the influence of external forces. In the stock market, channel theory refers to the idea that prices will remain within a channel without external influence. It can generally be considered that prices are not affected by external forces 70% of the time, that is, within a channel, the stock price is affected by external forces 30% of the time, and the trend will exceed the range of the channel, which may be an uptrend or a downtrend.
2. Pay attention to the moving average
A moving average is a curve that calculates the average of historical market trends and connects them together. It is also an abbreviation for a moving average indicator. In fact, as this indicator is an important indicator reflecting the trend of price operation, once its trend is formed, it will continue to maintain for a period of time. The high or low points formed by the trend operation have blocking or supporting effects, as shown in the following figure. Therefore, the point where the moving average indicator is located is often a very important support or resistance level, which provides investors with favorable opportunities to buy or sell, and the price of the moving average system is also based on this. In practical operations, we often use moving averages such as 5-day moving averages, 10 day moving averages, 15 day moving averages, 30 day moving averages, 60 day moving averages, 120 day moving averages, and 250 day moving averages.
Usually, after a long period of rising stock prices, if the 5-day moving average crosses the 10 day moving average, it should be taken seriously by investors. If the 10 day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average, you should consider selling the stock. When the 30 day moving average turns downward, one should decisively exit, whether it is a loss or a profit.
3. Pay attention to trading volume
In the stock market, it is often said that "anything can be deceived in the stock market, only the trading volume is real." The size of the trading volume directly indicates the ultimate degree of recognition of the technical form of the market by both long and short sides at a certain moment. The seventh rule of the twelve buying and selling rules of Gann is to observe trading volume, pointing out that the purpose of studying trading volume is to help determine the change of trend. Therefore, there is a saying in the market that "quantity comes before price, first see the sky high quantity, then see the sky high price, and land quantity comes after land price". It should be pointed out that investors cannot simplify or absolutize the role of trading volume in practical applications. Due to the large amount of collusion in the domestic stock market, trading volume can also deceive people to some extent. Therefore, it is best for investors to analyze it specifically based on the actual situation.
Objectively speaking, the above three points are complementary to each other, and ignoring any of them is not feasible. In addition, in addition to the "three concerns" of the market, investors should also pay attention to changes in the macroeconomic and policy aspects. Negative policies should be shorted, while positive policies should be long. It is absolutely forbidden to go against the policy side and use eggs to hit stones.
5、 Key points to note for successful market viewing
Generally speaking, to successfully view a market, attention should be paid to the following aspects.
Learning other people's theories and listening to their explanations is certainly important, but the key is still to find methods and theories that are suitable for oneself. In addition to honing their skills in practical situations, retail investors should focus their main energy on researching the market, data, charts, and phenomena, and summarize things that conform to market rules and have real practical value.
2. The market has a wide variety of products, which requires mental screening and makes it difficult to analyze the intentions of market makers. The market phenomena witnessed by many investors are not always logical. Therefore, it is not enough for investors to rely on technical analysis and various types of news to cope, they also need to further improve their ability to view the market and psychological quality.
3. Most investors do not follow the correct attitude and discipline to view the market. Some blindly follow the news, while others do not take the market view seriously. Many people have never even had the concept of "watching the market". In fact, the process of market observation is the process of stock selection.
4. Investors need to find the type of stock they want to operate in among many stocks, determine the holding time and buying and selling basis, and consider whether to do diversified portfolio or full position in and out, and aggressively engage in short-term trading.
5. It should be emphasized that the key to watching a market is whether the transaction is natural, which is of utmost importance. In addition, investors also need to consider the continuity of the transaction. Investors must consider the changes in stock prices over a period of time when analyzing some trading details, rather than just staying at a certain detail.
6、 The technique of using a time-sharing chart to judge the overall market
1. Analysis and judgment of the overall market
The analysis of the overall market can be conducted from the following aspects.
(1) Analysis of stock price and individual stock market selection (observing whether the stock price is consistent with the trend of most individual stocks).
(2) The implicit information behind the weakening or strengthening of stock prices on the market.
(3) Master the market rhythm, sell high and buy low, and reduce holding costs.
2. Tips for judging the overall market using a time-sharing chart
In the stock market, the overall trend of the market often changes rapidly throughout the day, sometimes with strong morning movements and sudden drops in the afternoon; Sometimes it falls heavily in the morning, but turns the tide in the afternoon. In fact, most stocks follow the rise and fall of the overall market. Therefore, in order for investors to grasp the buying and selling points, they must first learn to look at the market.
The overall market constrains sectors, sectors constrain leaders, and leaders lead sectors. On the other hand, leading companies stimulate sectors, which in turn drive the overall market. In short, the emergence of these phenomena is closely related to the operators behind them. In a sense, the operation methods of market makers and investors are no different, both aiming to make money by buying low and selling high. The difference is that market makers become the leaders in the market through their innate advantages in information, technology, and capital, while investors become more passive followers.
Usually, when a large buying spree occurs, investors can intervene; When a large sell-off occurs, investors need to leave as soon as possible. In fact, it is not difficult to achieve this. Investors can carefully observe the time-sharing chart to see some "tricks".
Objectively speaking, the obvious rise and fall points of a stock's time line are mostly related to the strength of the market's time line rise and fall at the same time. For strong stocks, it is often when the market's intraday chart is about to rise after a wave of decline, and these stocks have already rebounded to near the starting point of the pattern, accumulating momentum to break through; For weak stocks, it is when the market's intraday chart has risen and is about to turn downwards, and these stocks have already fallen back to near the starting point of the pattern, accumulating momentum to break through. In practical operation, investors should choose to place orders to buy or sell at the moment before the most powerful rise or fall of the market's intraday chart. In other words, it is of great significance for investors to seize the opportunity to buy and sell in advance by grasping the future wave of upward momentum of the market's intraday chart.
In addition, investors should learn to sell when the stock price rebounds sharply and rises sharply on a time-sharing chart, rather than selling when the stock price drops sharply; Learn to buy when the stock price drops to the support level, rather than buying when the stock price rises (with some exceptions).
For investors, the overall market is a predictable graph. By grasping the buying and selling points in conjunction with the overall market, investors will buy before the stock price skyrockets and exit before the stock price drops sharply.
