stock market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes of the US stock market closed up on Thursday, while the Dow Jones index closed down in volatile trading. Investors are assessing the financial report and waiting for Amazon's after hours earnings report, as well as the key employment report to be released on Friday.

Amazon rose 1.1% before releasing its financial report. The company's quarterly revenue exceeded expectations, but the sales of its cloud computing department were lower than expected. After the deep exploration of low-cost artificial intelligence models by Chinese startups raised doubts among investors about US tech companies investing billions of dollars in developing AI technology, investors began to pay attention to Amazon's AI investments.

Nvidia's stock price rose by 3.1%. Zachary Hill, Head of Portfolio Management at Horizon Investments, said, "Today's main focus is on corporate profitability, with tariffs taking a back seat. Over the past few weeks, with the news of DeepSeek, there has been considerable volatility in the artificial intelligence industry, and we will be keeping an eye on any ideas from (Amazon) in this area tonight

Pharmaceutical manufacturer Eli Lilly rose 3.3% after expecting a significantly higher than expected full year profit; Fashion company Tapestry surged 12% due to expected growth in sales and profits for the full year. Philip Morris International rose 10.9% after the cigarette manufacturer announced better than expected quarterly results and projected higher than expected profits for 2025.

Honeywell fell 5.6% after the industrial and aerospace company announced plans to split into three independent publicly traded companies and predicted a decline in sales and profits in 2025.

Eight out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index rose, led by the financial services and essential consumer goods sectors, while the energy sector experienced the largest decline. The non farm payroll report for January will be released on Friday, which is an important indicator for measuring the labor market situation and the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

According to FedWatch from CME, traders expect the Federal Reserve to remain inactive at its next meeting in March, but it is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The data released on Thursday showed a slight increase in initial jobless claims in the United States last week.

King City

Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the release of a key employment report and investors took profits. The previous five trading days saw gold prices reach record highs as US trade tensions escalated.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2853.16 per ounce, hitting a record high of $2882.16 on Wednesday. US futures closed 0.6% lower, with a settlement price of $2876.70.

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated that prior to the release of the US employment report, the strengthening of the US dollar, some profit taking, and a slight rebound in yields from low levels may have put pressure on gold.

A Reuters survey of economists shows that after a significant increase of 256000 non farm jobs in December, there may be an increase of 170000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

A resilient labor market is driving economic growth and allowing the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts when assessing the impact of Trump's fiscal, trade, and immigration policies on inflation.

From a technical perspective, a relative strength index (RSI) for gold above 70 indicates an overbought state.

Meanwhile, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, stated that the central bank's gold inventory has decreased by approximately 2% since the end of last year, and there is strong demand for gold stored at the central bank to take advantage of international price differentials.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $32.27 per ounce; Palladium fell 1.4% to $975.59. Platinum rose 0.7% to $985.98.

Oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Thursday after US President Trump reiterated his commitment to increasing US oil production, causing traders to feel nervous. The day before, a report showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week.

Brent crude oil futures fell 0.4%, settling at $74.29 per barrel. US crude oil futures fell 0.6% to $70.61.

On Thursday, Trump once again pledged to increase US production to lower oil prices and alleviate consumer inflation. After Trump's speech, oil prices gave up their earlier gains. However, analysts still question whether US oil producers are willing to supply more oil in the current market.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "There is no sign that US drilling activities are accelerating," and he pointed out that the market's reaction to Trump's remarks surprised him.

Oil prices are also under pressure due to the significant increase in US crude oil inventories. Indicator crude oil fell 2% on Wednesday, as US government data released on the same day showed that domestic crude oil inventories increased by 8.7 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 2 million barrels. Macquarie analysts say they expect US crude oil inventories to increase significantly again this week.

The oil market experienced volatile trading on Thursday. After Saudi Aramco significantly increased prices for Asian buyers, oil prices began to rise. In the short term, the oil market is expected to remain volatile, and global trade will be under pressure due to Trump's rapidly changing tariffs and sanctions decisions.

currencies

The Japanese yen hit an eight week high against the US dollar on Thursday, after members of the Bank of Japan's Policy Committee advocated for continued interest rate hikes, while the pound fell due to the Bank of England's interest rate cuts. The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but predicted rising inflation and weak economic growth. Two officials called for a larger rate cut.

The pound later narrowed some of its decline and hit a one month high on Wednesday. The pound fell 0.54% in late trading to $1.2438. The money market currently expects the Bank of England to further cut interest rates by 67 basis points before the end of the year.

Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist of Toronto based payment company Corpay, said in a research report, "The decline in the pound may be limited: the service driven UK economy has largely resisted trade risks

The US dollar index was at 107.69, but still hovering around its lowest level since early last week, as investors began to feel optimistic about avoiding global trade prospects. In the absence of headline news on tariffs, the market is turning its attention to Friday's release of key monthly employment data for the United States, which is the next major test of the outlook for US monetary policy. The US dollar index hit a two-year high of 110.17 on January 13th, but has since fallen 2%.

The Japanese yen strengthened during the morning trading session in Tokyo, reaching a high of 151.81 yen per US dollar, the strongest level since December 12th. Earlier, the hawkish member of the Bank of Japan, Naoki Tamura, stated that with the increasing risk of rising prices, the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates to at least 1% in the second half of the 2025 fiscal year.

After Naoki Tamura clarified that he did not mean the neutral interest rate should be 1%, the yen closed at 151.335 yen, up 0.82% from the previous trading day, giving up some of the early gains.

The Canadian dollar was trading at CAD 1.431 against the US dollar, rising overnight to its highest level of CAD 1.4270 since December 17th. The Mexican peso fell 0.45% to 20.474 Mexican pesos per US dollar. The euro fell 0.19% against the US dollar to $1.0382.

international news

The United States Agency for International Development will lay off approximately 97% of its personnel

Four sources said that the Trump administration plans to reduce the number of employees at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to 294, which has a total of over 10000 employees worldwide. Since Trump took office on January 20th, this major humanitarian aid agency in Washington has been a target of Musk's government restructuring plan. With Trump and Musk falsely accusing their staff of being criminals and baseless accusations of stolen funds, dozens of US Agency for International Development staff have been suspended, hundreds of internal contractors have been fired, and jobs around the world are in jeopardy. The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it will take leave for all directly employed employees of the United States Agency for International Development worldwide and recall thousands of personnel working overseas.

Bank of Canada Governor: Trump's tariff threat affects business and household confidence

The Governor of the Bank of Canada stated that US President Trump's threat to impose new tariffs has affected the confidence of businesses and households, particularly in Canada and Mexico. If large-scale tariffs are indeed implemented, it will test the resilience of our economy in the short term and weaken long-term prosperity. He stated that the longer this uncertainty persists, the greater the pressure it puts on Canada's economic activity. In a world with more structural changes and more negative supply shocks, central banks will face more difficult choices.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 85.5%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 85.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 61.1%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 34.7%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 4.1%.

The US bond market reacted coldly to the US Treasury Secretary's 10-year yield commitment

US Treasury Secretary Vincent Besant's commitment to control the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds met some doubts in the bond market on Thursday, because inflationary pressures and expectations of the expansion of the federal deficit may overshadow efforts to curb borrowing costs. Besant said in an interview yesterday: "Although Trump hopes to reduce interest rates, he will not ask the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.". The bigger issue in composite inflation is service sector inflation, as well as the inflation stickiness that has been prevalent in the past few months, "said Padhraic Garvey, Head of Research for the Americas at Dutch International Group. The tariff agenda will only bring upward pressure on prices, and in fact, it may have more influence than the energy price control plan

Ukrainian President: $40 billion to $50 billion needed to address housing issues for displaced persons

According to the Ukrainian state news agency, Zelensky will meet with visiting European Bank for Reconstruction and Development President Odile Reynaud Baso in Kiev on the 6th. Zelensky said at a subsequent joint press conference that there are about 5 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine, and to solve the housing problem for this group of people, Ukraine urgently needs $40 billion to $50 billion in funding. He hopes to obtain more financial support through Russia's frozen financial assets and will discuss this topic with European partners during this month's Munich Security Conference. Zelensky also stated that the US Agency for International Development hopes that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development can provide support for the Ukrainian Veterans Assistance Program during the period when some social assistance projects in Ukraine are frozen.

OpenAI's Stargate artificial intelligence company is looking for data center locations in the United States

OpenAI announced on Thursday that it is evaluating the possibility of potential artificial intelligence data centers located in various states of the United States for its large-scale Stargate project, and sees the project as a top priority for the United States to lead the global AI race. OpenAI Chief Global Affairs Officer Chris Lehane said that about 16 states have expressed interest in building data centers for Stargate, with Texas being the location of the "flagship" data center. The first data center of the project has started construction in Abilene, Texas.

Slovakia has begun to import Russian natural gas through the "Türkiye Stream" pipeline

On February 6 local time, Ferenc, the head of Slovakia's largest natural gas supplier SPP, said in an interview with local media that the company has imported Russian natural gas through the "Türkiye Stream" pipeline since February 1, and it is expected that the delivery will double from April this year. Ferenc stated that the agreement reached between SPP and Gazprom is valid until 2034 and "no consideration has been given to terminating the agreement". The purpose of importing Russian natural gas through the "Türkiye Creek" pipeline is to reduce energy costs. "Türkiye Stream" is a natural gas pipeline for Russia to supply gas to Europe through Türkiye, and is one of the only gas pipelines between Russia and Europe at present. The pipeline is intended to transport natural gas to Türkiye, or through Türkiye to southern or south-eastern Europe. (CCTV)

Trump promises to increase US oil production and lower oil prices

US President Donald Trump has announced that Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will work with Energy Secretary Chris Wright to increase oil production and lower prices. The government will mine more of this liquid gold than ever before, "Trump said. We will lower oil prices, and everything else will follow suit

Natural gas prices in the United States hit a one week high, with dynamic changes in supply and demand

On February 6th, US natural gas futures prices rose slightly by about 1%, reaching a new high for the week, mainly due to the expected colder weather in the next two weeks and higher than expected heating demand. The natural gas futures price for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.4 cents, or 1.0%, on the same day, reaching $3.394 per million British thermal units, setting the highest closing price since January 29th for the second consecutive day. Despite an increase in daily production, prices are still rising, and the market expects the extraction of natural gas inventories last week to be close to normal levels. Analysts predict that as of the week ending January 31, utilities extracted 168 billion cubic feet of natural gas from inventory, higher than the 110 billion cubic feet in the same period last year and the five-year average of 174 billion cubic feet. The extreme cold weather in late January pushed heating demand to a historic high, and analysts believe that the extraction of natural gas inventories in January may reach a new high, currently recorded at 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022.

Domestic news

Over 15 billion yuan, the first batch of funds to enter the market in the Year of the Snake has been confirmed

The Snake Year market is slowly unfolding, and incremental funds entering the market are gradually being received. As of the close on February 5th, a total of 7 newly established ETFs have confirmed their listing dates for the Year of the Snake, with a cumulative trading share of over 1.5 billion and a cumulative scale of over 15 billion yuan. If calculated from 2025 onwards, the amount of funds entering the market through ETFs will exceed 40 billion yuan. Chinese journalists from securities firms have found that among these listed funds, three new types of "players" - individual investors, dedicated account FOFs, and pension funds - are emerging, with significant holdings among the top ten holders. In some ETFs, individual investors rank first among the top ten holders. Analysts told reporters from securities firms in China that the types of ETF holders are becoming increasingly diverse, gradually becoming an important allocation part for institutions such as pension funds. From the trend of mature foreign markets, it can be seen that since 2017, various types of pension funds in the United States and Canada have increased their ETF allocation, and the development of domestic ETFs should also follow this trend. Among them, there is both booming market demand and predictable policy support and product supply.