The main position is the biggest secret in this market. Knowing this secret is like knowing the place to bury gold for individual investors, even like shouting in front of Alibaba's treasure trove: 'Open the sesame door'.
1、 The principle of exploring the main position
In reality, it is generally difficult for people to uncover this secret. The main force won't tell this secret, and there's nowhere to inquire. Some investors hope to calculate the position of the main force by accumulating large trading orders on the market, but this method is actually very inconsistent with the facts. As far as we know, in order to counter tracking, the main players often divide their chips into several parts. For example, the main player of Yian Technology, who has already announced, used more than 600 retail accounts to operate a single stock. Assuming a fund of 1 billion is operating on the market. One billion should be considered a relatively large amount of funds, but when it is divided into 100 or 1000 parts, it becomes less noticeable. Because even with a large fund of 1 billion, if it is distributed across 1000 accounts, there will only be 1 million left on each account. Therefore, the trading volume seen on the market is nothing more than the trading volume of a middle account, and you cannot find where the banker is. That is to say, due to everyone's special attention to these large transactions, the main force has an additional method of deceiving the line. If the main player wants to attract funds, he will intentionally release a large order as selling pressure, making you think that there are big players going to leave, but he can use small orders to complete the fundraising. On the other hand, when the main force needs to ship? You can buy with a single large transaction order and then sell with a small transaction order that is 10 times larger than the large transaction order in a penetrating manner. You have no way to deal with the main force.
Many people fantasize that they can learn about their main holdings by befriending individual traders. There are many rumors in the market, but these rumors also have significant issues. Recalling, we have indeed heard rumors that a key player owns stocks of a listed company, but we have never heard of any news that the main player has reduced its holdings in any particular stock. This market fact once again shows that the news of which stocks the main force owns is likely to be deliberately leaked. The purpose of the main force exposing their holdings and publicly disclosing the information they have learned is the same, nothing more than to lure everyone to lift their cart during the process of pulling and lifting, or even to lure public funds into entering when they sell. Let's recall another detail. Every time we hear news about a certain stock, its price is usually not low. Since these market insiders can uncover the core secret of the main position, why is there no news during the low position fundraising period of the main force? During the main shipment period, there is no way to receive warnings. It seems that market makers often make fun of their acquaintances and friends for their own benefit. I once argued with a stock friend for more than an hour. The friend said that the dealer told him that they (the dealer) were still in the Oriental Pearl TV Tower stock, and at this time Oriental Pearl TV Tower was at the most dangerous high before the crash. There are even more comical stories. I have many friends who are editors in chief or even chief editors of major media outlets. The editorial departments of these famous TV stations and newspapers are often an office, fully invested in one stock from top to bottom. Who deceived them? It's interesting that these big reporters are still defending his banker friends, saying that his friends originally planned to protect the market, but unfortunately the selling pressure was too heavy and they couldn't bear it.
How to calculate the main position in this situation?
We must change our mindset. Since it is so difficult to capture the market and calculate the position of the main players, let's adopt a negative method. We will no longer ask the market makers, but ask the individual investors: How much do you own in this stock? In addition to the main players, this market is dominated by public investors. If the goods are not in the hands of individual investors, they must be in the hands of the main players, and vice versa.
So, we asked retail investors a question: under what circumstances are you unwilling to hold another stock? Unfortunately, after asking this question, my retail friends did not give me a clear answer, and it seems that everyone has not had time to think about such a question. So I changed my way of asking: Who is used to making a profit of 30% before selling their stocks? In the auditorium of about a thousand people, only one person raised their hand. Next question: Who is used to taking profits of more than 20% before closing? At this moment, more than ten people raised their hands. The final question is: Who is accustomed to selling stocks for a profit between 10% and 20%? At this point, there were already a lot of people raising their hands. This result is also very close to my operating habits. I have looked at hundreds of my delivery orders, and the vast majority of them were sold in the profit range of 8% to 15%. This is a very common practice among retail investors. We do not evaluate whether this approach is cost-effective, but rather obtain a market fact that it is difficult for individual investors to achieve a floating profit of over 20% in stocks. Therefore, we have the first principle: the chips that are not sold for profit are the main chips.
Looking at the unwinding market again, the general holding psychology of retail investors is "anxious and uneasy when profiting, and exceptionally calm when deeply trapped". In the bear market, securities branches are basically empty, not to mention buying and selling stocks, retail investors are too lazy to even look at the market. And when the stock price rebounds from the bottom and investors approach the state of unwinding, the stock market becomes active again. When the stock price returns to the vicinity of the previous lock up zone, it usually triggers a relatively large trading volume, indicating that these early trapped investors, once released, have chosen to stay out and observe.
This is like this scenario: a group of tourists are in danger in a maze of caves. They have been lost for several days in a complex cave, surrounded by darkness, cold, hunger, and fear. At this moment, they suddenly found a hole and a beam of sunlight shot in, making them cheer, which meant they were saved. What will they do? They will definitely quickly escape from this dark place. This is human nature. Few people are so romantic: since they are already saved, why should I rush away? Is this experience still unforgettable? Let me stay for two more days and experience this unforgettable cave experience. Such tourists are unlikely to exist. So, leaving the market is a common behavioral norm for retail investors.
But there are always exceptions, Fangzheng Technology (600601) 2001/03/30
At first glance, the technical chart of this stock doesn't seem particularly special. The stock fell 20% from its high and then slowly rose again. Initially, it was acquired through chip manipulation. From the perspective of trading volume, there is also a trend of increasing volume due to the unwinding of funds. But upon closer observation of the stock's turnover rate, we found that it is actually very low, such as the last candlestick (2001/03/30) with a turnover rate of only 0.43%. Friends who are familiar with turnover rates know that once a stock's turnover rate is less than 1%, from the perspective of a time chart, the stock is basically not traded, and this situation is technically called 'no trading volume'. Just now we talked about that in general, once a locked up market is released, there will be a sufficient amount of release selling pressure in the market. However, the stock did not experience release selling pressure when 60% of its chips were released. Why are investors in Fangzheng Technology so strong? Do they not repent or fear being tricked again after being tricked once? The subsequent trend of the stock revealed the answer. After a few days, this stock quickly rose, indicating that the main force had already prepared their positions before the rally. These unsold chips were actually the main force's chips.
It is not difficult to understand that if the main force holds more than 50% of the chips in circulation, even if they are released, there is no chance of shipment. Because once so many chips are sold, the stock price will fall again, and the main force will face being trapped again. So even if the main force wants to leave, they must raise the stock price by several more limit up boards to create enough selling space for themselves.
This is another important principle of the stock market: the chips that are unsold are the main chips.
What is the most annoying thing for retail investors? Retail investors are not afraid of stock price drops. If the stock price falls, just take it and have a good mentality. The most annoying thing is that the stock price does not rise for a long time. Within a month, or even two or three months, you will be asked to earn 10%, lose 10%, earn 10% again, and lose 10% again. No one can bear the psychological torment of these two or three months of tossing and turning. Therefore, the long-term fluctuations and sideways movements of stock prices often make retail investors unable to resist and sell their stocks at a certain position - can't they afford to provoke or avoid it? So we have a third principle: the chips that cannot be washed away in a sideways market are the chips of the main force.
In this way, we have obtained three basic principles for determining the main position through the study of individual investors, which can be used to further search for precise technical methods for calculating the main position.
