**********On Thursday (January 30th Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2758.84. Gold prices fell on Wednesday, while US dollar and US Treasury yields roseFederal ReserveMaintaining interest rate stability as widely expected by the market, but providing no clear information on the timing of future interest rate cuts. US crude oil traded around $73.06 per barrel, after domestic crude oil inventories in the world's largest oil producing and consuming countries increased more than expected last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.31% on Wednesday, closing at 44713.52 points; The S&P 500 index fell 0.47% to close at 6039.31 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.51% to close at 19632.32 points.

Key focus for the day: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US Q4 GDP and PCE data, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 25th, Eurozone January consumer confidence index initial value, European Central Bank President Lagarde holding monetary policy press conference.

stock market

The US stock market closed lower on Wednesday, but broke away from the daily low. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rate stability as expected, ChairmanPowellMade a statement to appease investors.

The technology sector has caused the biggest drag on the S&P 500 index. Nvidia fell 4.1%, while Microsoft fell 1.1%. After the Federal Reserve's statement was released, the stock market initially continued its downward trend, with the Nasdaq index falling more than 1% in afternoon trading.

The Federal Reserve has abandoned the wording of "making progress" in reducing inflation towards its 2% target, only stating that the rate of price increases is "still very fast". After three consecutive interest rate cuts in 2024, lowering the benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, the market generally expects the US Federal Reserve to maintain policy interest rate stability.

When Powell began his speech at the press conference after the policy statement was released, the stock index narrowed its decline. He said, 'We don't need to rush to adjust our policy stance.' Monetary policy is already 'in a good position' and can cope with the current challenges.

Longbow Asset Management CEO Jake Dollarhide said, 'Powell has done a great job in calming the market, and the strong economy has given the Federal Reserve enough room for maneuver.'“

Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said, "The Federal Reserve did not bring any surprises to the market." Powell also stated that it is too early to judge the impact of President Trump's policies, and the Fed will take time to evaluate the significance of the new government policy system.

Investors have been concerned that Trump's proposed tariff policy may exacerbate inflationary pressures and slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has provided almost no clues on when it may further reduce borrowing costs.

Traders expect to cut interest rates by about 44 basis points by the end of the year, down from about 48 basis points before the Fed's announcement. This reflects a decrease in market confidence in the Federal Reserve's two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. The December data of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key indicator for evaluating inflation trajectory, will be released on Friday.

After the close, Microsoft reported that although its overall quarterly revenue exceeded expectations, its key Azure cloud business growth was lower than expected. Its stock price fell 1.5% in after hours trading.

King City

Gold prices fell on Wednesday, while US dollar and Treasury yields rose. Previously, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rate stability as widely expected, but did not provide any clear information on the timing of future interest rate cuts.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2753.86 per ounce; US gold futures closed 0.1% higher, with a settlement price of $2779.80, expanding the premium compared to spot gold.

The 0.3% increase in the US dollar has made gold expensive for holders of other currencies, while the rise in 10-year US Treasury yields has reduced the attractiveness of non yielding gold.

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rate stability without providing any clues on when it may further reduce borrowing costs in an economic environment where inflation remains above target, the economy continues to grow, and unemployment rates are low.

Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, stated that "given President Trump's request to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve may insist on some degree of independence," but I believe that the policy path will largely remain unchanged. Therefore, in this sense, it is possible to wait until mid year before lowering interest rates. After the statement was released, investors in the short-term interest rate futures market expect the Federal Reserve to postpone further interest rate cuts before June.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that it is too early to say what impact President Trump's policies will have, and the Fed will slowly assess what the new government policies mean.

Spot silver rose 1.2% to $30.76 per ounce; Platinum rose 0.5% to $946.35. Palladium rose 0.8% to $962.75.

Oil market

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with the US benchmark oil price closing at its lowest point so far this year, after domestic crude oil inventories in the world's largest oil producing and consuming countries increased more than expected last week.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.2% at $76.58 per barrel. US crude oil futures fell 1.6% to $72.62, the lowest settlement price so far this year. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventories increased by 3.46 million barrels last week due to a third consecutive week of decline in refinery purchases.

The White House reiterated on Tuesday that President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico starting from February 1st.

UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a letter to clients on Wednesday that as investors digest the threat of tariffs, sanctions on Russian energy flows, and concerns about economic growth in major consumer countries, the recent oil trading market is expected to continue

shock.

The Federal Reserve maintained stable interest rates on Thursday morning. The Federal Reserve has hardly disclosed when it plans to reduce borrowing costs, and cutting interest rates will promote economic activity and oil demand.

Traders are still looking ahead to the OPEC+ministerial meeting scheduled for February 3rd, with the organization's plan to increase supply starting from April being the focus. Trump called for OPEC+to lower oil prices last week. The organization has not yet responded, but representatives attending the meeting stated that it is unlikely to change the policy at the February meeting.

currencies

The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Wednesday. Previously, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as widely expected by the market, but did not explicitly disclose whether it would further reduce borrowing costs this year.

Federal Reserve officials have unanimously decided to maintain the overnight interest rate in the current range of 4.25% -4.50%. The Fed is in a wait-and-see state, waiting for further inflation and employment data, as well as clarity on the impact of President Trump's policies.

At a press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that it is too early to assess the impact of Trump's policies and emphasized that the Fed's 2% inflation target will remain unchanged.

Juan Perez, the head of trading at Monex USA in Washington, said, "They seem very confident that there may not be a need for any rate cuts, which is understandable

The US dollar rose 0.35% against the Swiss franc to 0.907; The US dollar fell 0.17% against the Japanese yen to 155.25 yen. The euro fell 0.17% against the US dollar to $1.041. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates on Thursday.

The US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.09% to 108.02. On Monday, due to the sell-off of global technology stocks and a surge in demand for safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, the US dollar index hit a one month low of 106.96. However, since Trump won the US election in November, the index has still risen by more than 4%.

US President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said on Wednesday that he suggested Trump impose comprehensive tariffs on the country. The Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 3% on Wednesday and revised its economic growth forecast. It also warned Canadians that the US triggered tariff war could cause significant damage to the economy.

international news

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged in January

1. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% -4.50%. 2. The post meeting statement deleted the statement that "the labor market situation has generally eased" and instead stated that the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level and the labor market situation remains stable. 3. The statement removed language that suggested progress towards the 2% inflation target, stating that 'inflation remains high to some extent'. 4. The statement maintains the wording of "roughly balancing" the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets. 5. The statement maintained wording such as' the committee will continue to monitor the impact of subsequent information on the economic outlook when evaluating appropriate positions on monetary policy '. The Federal Reserve's no action statement on interest rates removed the wording of progress in inflation.

Federal Reserve Messenger: Fed enters wait-and-see phase satisfied with interest rate stance

Nick Timiraos, the spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed has pressed the pause button for interest rate cuts, entering a new wait-and-see phase as it tries to decide whether to lower rates from their recent 20-year high and by how much. Before deciding to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve had already cut interest rates three times in a row since September, when the rate was around 5.3%. The policy statement issued by officials at the end of the two-day meeting only made minor changes. The statement indicates that they are satisfied with their interest rate stance in an economic situation where inflation rates are still slightly above target and labor market conditions are stable.

Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve's regulation of the banking industry and accuses Powell of failing to prevent inflation

US President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's regulation of banks and accused Fed Chairman Powell of failing in the fight against inflation, but he avoided directly commenting on interest rate issues. "The Federal Reserve has done a bad job in bank supervision. The Treasury Department will take the lead in reducing unnecessary supervision and will release loans to all American people and enterprises," Trump said on his social media website on Wednesday. And blame inflation on the Federal Reserve's so-called focus on "diversity, equality, and inclusivity (DEI), gender ideology, 'green' energy, and false climate change". Trump has been working hard to shut down DEI offices from federal agencies during his first 10 days in office.

Trump's federal funding freeze order revoked hastily after 48 hours

A copy of a memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the United States states that the Trump administration revoked its decision to freeze federal funding on Wednesday, causing unease in the US political arena and widespread chaos. The new memo with only two sentences released by OMB on Wednesday cancels the original memo released by the office two days ago. If you have any questions regarding the execution of the President's executive orders, please contact the General Counsel of your agency, "the new memorandum reads. The Trump administration's federal funding freeze has raised uncertainty about the crucial financial lifeline of states, schools, and organizations that rely on trillions of dollars in government funding, and has prompted the White House to hastily explain which projects will be affected by the suspension and which will not.

Market speculation that the United States may impose import tariffs on gold, London gold market queuing up to extract gold

Two insiders said that participants in the London gold market are competing to borrow central bank gold stored in London, as the market speculates that the United States may impose import tariffs, leading to a surge in gold deliveries to the United States. One of the sources said that the shortest waiting time for extracting gold from the Bank of England, which stores gold for central banks around the world, has reached four weeks, compared to several days or a week under normal circumstances. US President Trump did not mention precious metals in his tariff plan, but this risk is enough to boost gold delivery in New York, as some markets seek to hedge their positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and others seek to profit from the significant increase in COMEX futures premiums to London spot contracts. Industry expert Robert Gottlieb said that for the Bank of England, the key is that it is not a commercial treasury, so it is not prepared to respond to the demand for banks to borrow heavily in gold from the central bank.

The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates and abandons guidance on interest rates, while tariff threats cast a shadow over the economy

As Trump's tariff threat casts a shadow over the outlook, the Bank of Canada has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate to 3% on Wednesday, in line with the market and the general expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank stated in a statement that "the economy is expected to gradually strengthen and inflation will remain near target levels, but if tariffs are significantly increased, the resilience of the Canadian economy will be tested. Officials stated that the 200 basis point rate cut since June has been quite significant, and they removed any guidance on further rate cuts in their statements.

The Bank of Canada ends its volume reduction plan and will gradually restart asset purchases in early March

The Bank of Canada has officially ended its plan to reduce central bank reserves and is expected to resume asset purchases on March 5th. About two weeks ago, the vice president hinted that the quantitative tightening plan would be discontinued in the first half of this year. The central bank revealed on Wednesday that it has completed the normalization of its balance sheet while deciding to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank has announced that it will restart its regular repurchase program on March 5th, with operations conducted every two weeks and amounts ranging from CAD 2 billion to CAD 5 billion. The Bank of Canada said that the purchase of treasury bond would resume later this year, and the purchase of Canadian government bonds through the secondary market would begin as early as the end of 2026.

Kazakhstan suspends exports of gasoline and some petroleum products

Kazakhstan's Minister of Energy Satkalyev stated on January 29th that due to the approaching spring plowing, the demand for petroleum products will significantly increase. To meet the demand of the agricultural sector, the government of Kazakhstan has decided to suspend the export of gasoline and some petroleum products from February 1st to March 29th. Satkalyev also stated on the same day that Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant is expected to be built within 8 years, and the government will require contractors to accelerate the construction speed of the nuclear power plant.

Domestic news

The first China Europe freight train in the Yangtze River Delta departs from Yiwu during the Lunar New Year

At around 4:40 am on January 29th, a China Europe freight train loaded with 110 TEUs of daily necessities, clothing, shoes, socks, auto parts and other export goods departed from Yiwu West Railway Station. This train is the first China Europe train to depart from the Yangtze River Delta during the Lunar New Year. According to statistics, since 2025, the Yiwu China Europe freight train has operated a total of 89 trains, transporting 9478 TEUs of goods, and has opened 20 transportation routes, reaching more than 50 countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Poland, and Germany. The types of goods transported by the Yiwu China Europe freight train (including the Central Asia direction) have also increased from over 10000 in the initial stage to over 50000 currently, providing strong support for the smooth domestic and international "dual circulation" and promoting the economic and social development of countries and regions along the route.

Single day box office record breaking in Chinese film history

According to statistics from the National Film Special Fund Office, as of 7:00 pm on January 29th, the box office for the first day of the Chinese New Year in 2025 has reached 1.701 billion yuan, with 33.0678 million moviegoers, surpassing the box office for the first day of the Chinese New Year in 2021 and setting a new daily box office record! The Spring Festival box office (including pre-sales) has reached 2.211 billion yuan. (CCTV)