**********On Friday (January 31), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian trading session, trading around $73.32 per day. Technically, there is demand for an oversold rebound near the support of the 55 day moving average.
At the same time, the downward momentum of the MACD indicator has weakened, with a focus on waiting for stress tests during the day. On the fundamentals, crude oil inventories have surged, coupled with the uncertainty of US policies, driving up risk aversion and putting pressure on commodity rebounds.
Under the premise of further slowdown in demand expectations, the rebound of oil prices is slightly insufficient, and caution should be taken to prevent further decline after a pullback.
This trading day, it is necessary to pay attention to the PCE price index in the United States, as well as the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, scheduled for February 3, to see if it will have a positive impact on oil price bulls and support the further strengthening of oil prices.
US President Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on these two countries as early as Saturday.
Phil Flynn, Senior Analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "We are getting closer and closer to the deadline, and people are starting to get nervous
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 82.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 18.0%.
The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 57.3%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 37.3%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 5.4%.
Federal Reserve cuts interest ratesThe expected slowdown, insufficient expectations for economic stimulus, and renewed concerns about oil price demand expectations are unfavorable for the rebound of oil prices.
The US economic growth slowed down in the fourth quarter, but strong domestic demand may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a slow pace of interest rate cuts this year; According to data from the Economic Analysis Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter increased by 2.3% year-on-year.
Below the growth rate of 3.1% in the third quarter; Reuters surveyed economists who expect GDP growth to be 2.6%, with estimates ranging from 1.7% to 3.2%; The record high commodity trade deficit in December prompted the Atlanta Fed to lower its GDP forecast from 3.2% to 2.3%.
Despite the slowdown in growth, the US economy still exceeded a non inflationary growth rate of 1.8% last year and did not experience a recession; The Federal Reserve expects only two interest rate cuts this year, lower than the four cuts predicted in September.
Reflecting the uncertainty of the economic impact of the new government's fiscal, trade, and immigration policies; Economists predict that economic growth will slow down in the second half of the year.
Inflation has risen, and consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, with a growth rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 3.7% growth rate in the third quarter.
Concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth have resurfaced, putting downward pressure on oil prices, which is also unfavorable for a short-term rebound in oil prices.
At 09:26 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently reported at $73.25 per barrel.
