**********Oil prices rise, Russian supply shortages outweigh tariff concerns

After experiencing the largest daily increase in nearly four weeks, oil prices stabilized on Tuesday of this week. Brent crude oil futures are approaching $76, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures have also broken through $72, continuing the upward trend of the previous two days. Behind this trend, in addition to market concerns about Trump's tariffs, it is more influenced by the tight supply of Russian oil.

Russia's production falls below OPEC+quota, intensifying market tension

According to data released by Russia, its oil production further fell below the quota set by the OPEC+agreement last month. Data shows that Russia's crude oil production has declined, indicating increased supply pressure in the global market. The current situation we are facing is quite complex, and the impact of tariffs is still not fully clear. However, based on the current market situation, we may have reached a short-term low point, "said Chris Weston, research director at Pepperstone Group.

Trump's tariff policyFailed to significantly suppress oil prices

Despite Trump's recent announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which will take effect from March 4th, the market's response to this new policy has not been as drastic as expected. Trump said that this measure will help strengthen domestic production and create more job opportunities, but "tariffs may further increase," which has intensified trade concerns. However, despite this uncertainty, oil prices have not experienced a significant decline and have instead remained strong driven by other factors.

Middle East supply shortage drives up oil prices

At present, some regions of the global oil market are showing signs of tight supply, especially in the Middle East. Due to supply cuts from other regions, the major oil producing countries in the area have been able to raise prices, especially when supplying crude oil to Asian countries. In addition, the soaring natural gas prices in Europe have made fuel a more economical alternative, which may further push up oil prices in the short term.

Editor's viewpoint:

Although Trump's tariff policies have increased uncertainty in global trade, the rebound in oil prices is more driven by the tight supply of Russian oil and rising prices in the Middle East. The changes in energy demand, especially against the backdrop of soaring natural gas prices, have made the oil market show a certain degree of resilience. The future trend of oil prices is still influenced by both geopolitical and supply side dynamics, and investors need to pay attention to further changes in the global market.