**********On Wednesday (February 12th), spot gold continued to decline, trading around $2885. The recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by multiple fundamental factors, includingRisk aversionThe continuous warming of the market, the increase in gold holdings by Asian central banks, the performance of US economic data, and the continued rise in SPDR gold ETF holdings.
From the perspective of market pricing, gold is still in a stage dominated by safe haven sentiment, with bullish sentiment prevailing. However, with the acceleration of long positions and significant increase in market volatility, there is pressure for a short-term correction. Before the bullish trend is disrupted, it is not advisable to blindly short, but to wait for the opportunity to buy low after adjustment.
Analysis of Fundamental Core Influencing Factors
Risk aversion dominates the trend of gold prices
The current market risk aversion is still relatively strong, mainly influenced by factors such as global economic uncertainty and trade concerns. The decline in investors' risk appetite has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset.
Asian central banks continue to increase their holdings of gold
Recently, central banks in Asian countries have continued to increase their gold reserves, driving market buying sentiment. The central bank's increase in holdings is usually seen as a long-term factor supporting gold prices, especially in the context of loose monetary policy, where the anti inflation properties of gold are more of a concern.
SPDR Gold ETF holdings continue to rise
As the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR's position changes are often seen as an important indicator of institutional fund flows. In recent days, the holdings of SPDR gold ETFs have continued to increase, indicating that institutional investors still have strong bullish expectations for the gold market.
US economic data affects market expectations
The latest released US CPI data shows that inflation is still at a high level, which may affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The current market expectation of interest rate cuts has become one of the key factors affecting the trend of gold. If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tends to be loose, it will further support gold prices. Pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech and US January CPI data in the short term.
Interpretation of Technical Aspects and Market Trends
Daily level: The moving average system shows that the bullish trend still dominates, but the short-term divergence rate is expanding, which means that there may be downward pressure. If the daily closing price falls below $2880, it may indicate a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
4-hour level: MACD indicator shows signs of divergence, indicating a weakening of short-term upward momentum, but the moving average still maintains a bullish position. The technical support level is focused on the $2880 area. If this support is not broken, gold is expected to maintain a strong structure.
Market analysts said, "In the short term, gold still benefits from safe haven sentiment and continued inflows of institutional funds, but as technical overbought signals gradually emerge, investors need to pay attention to potential pullback risks
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