**********On Thursday (January 30th), the United States released a series of important announcementseconomic dataThe market response is complex and full of uncertainty, covering fourth quarter GDP, initial unemployment claims data, and consumer confidence. These data not only affect the trend of the US dollar, but also have an impact on the marketFederal ReserveThe expected policy path of the Federal Reserve has had a profound impact.
The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded more than 14 points in the short term after the data was released, touching 107.9880, and then plunged about 50 points to 107.500, a decrease of 0.49%. Spot gold rose $8, reaching a high of $2785.95 per ounce, and is expected to challenge the 2790 mark.
Economic growth slows down but demand remains stable
The GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 released by the US Department of Commerce shows that economic growth has slowed down to an annualized rate of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.6%. This data marks a slowdown in the growth rate of the US economy from the previous 3.1%, mainly due to weak investment and exports. However, consumer spending remains strong and continues to support economic growth, particularly driven by a 4.2% increase in personal consumption expenditure (PCE).
From a fundamental perspective, despite the slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter, consumer spending remained stable, indicating that the US economy has not fallen into recession as previously expected by the market. This is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's previous policy of continuously raising interest rates by 5.25 percentage points to control inflation, demonstrating the resilience of the US economy. Although the pace of economic growth has slowed down, it is still far above the non inflationary growth target set by the Federal Reserve of 1.8%. Market analysis suggests that this performance will enable the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy, and it is expected that the rate cuts this year will be limited.
The US job market remains strong, but confidence has been shaken
In terms of the job market, the initial jobless claims data for January in the United States fell more than expected, by 16000 to 207000 people. Although this data indicates that the US job market remains stable, consumer confidence in employment prospects has declined. According to a survey released by the Conference Board, the proportion of consumers who consider job opportunities to be "abundant" has dropped to its lowest point in four months, while the proportion who consider them "difficult to obtain" has risen to its highest level since October. This indicates that despite the low unemployment rate, consumers' optimistic expectations for the future job market are weakening, especially as companies slow down their recruitment pace in the context of tight monetary policy.
In its meeting statement on January 29th, the Federal Reserve removed the phrase 'inflation has made progress' and instead emphasized that inflation remains high. This change is closely related to the current performance of the job market and the upcoming release of macroeconomic data, which means that the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain a relatively strict monetary policy in the short term, especially if inflationary pressures have not fully eased.
USD reaction: short-term fluctuations, uncertain future trends
The brief rebound of the US dollar index after the release of US economic data reflects the market's response to the resilience of the US economy. However, this rebound did not last, and the US dollar index quickly fell back after touching 107.9880, indicating that the market's expectations for the Fed's future policy path are still divided. Despite strong consumer spending, the slowdown in US economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue its current stance of raising interest rates or suspending rate cuts, thereby providing support for the US dollar. However, external factors such as changes in international trade policies and the cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve towards future policies may make the trend of the US dollar more volatile.
In addition, changes in market expectations for Federal Reserve policies, particularly under the influence of the Trump administration's fiscal policies, tax reform, and tariff rhetoric, may lead to continued uncertainty for the US dollar in the medium term. The current market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue its wait-and-see policy until the economic situation becomes clearer. The future trend of the US dollar index may depend more on the Federal Reserve's interpretation of economic data and the pace of policy adjustments.
Future outlook: The US dollar is volatile, and the market is paying attention to signals from the Federal Reserve
Looking ahead, the trend of the US dollar will continue to be influenced by Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and external economic environment. In the short term, the US dollar may continue to fluctuate, especially against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve not fully clarifying the path of future interest rate cuts. If the US economic growth remains stable in the coming months and consumer spending continues to be strong, the Federal Reserve may adopt a gradual path of interest rate cuts, which may put some pressure on the rise of the US dollar. At the same time, the international economic situation, especially the economic performance of the eurozone and the policy adjustments of the European Central Bank, will also have a significant impact on the US dollar.
Overall, despite a slight slowdown in US economic data, the Federal Reserve's policy stance remains relatively cautious, and the market's adjustment of expectations for Fed rate cuts will be a key driving force for the future trend of the US dollar. For investors, it is important to pay attention to employment data, consumer spending, and inflation trends in the coming months, which will provide the market with more clues about the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In the current uncertainty, the US dollar may remain volatile, with short-term consolidation being the main market trend.
