**********The release of January PPI (Producer Price Index) and initial jobless claims (initial jobless claims) data in the United States on Thursday (February 13th) has brought significant market volatility. PPI is an important indicator for measuring price changes in the production process, which reflects changes in production costs and has a more profound impact on the market; The initial application data provides the latest updates on the employment situation in the United States from the perspective of the labor market, which is an important reference for investors to judge the health of the economy.
PPI exceeds market expectations, indicatinginflationary pressureThere has been a slight rebound, while initial application data shows a slight decrease in the number of initial jobless claims, further deepening the market's understanding ofFederal Reserve PolicyExpectations of direction. Next, this article will provide an in-depth interpretation of these two data points and their impact on the real-time and future market trends.
Real time market response
After the release of PPI data in January in the United States, there were significant fluctuations in the gold market. Spot gold rose by $10, reaching a high of $2917.61 per ounce, with a intraday increase of 0.31%; The main COMEX gold futures contract was reported at $2937.90 per ounce, an increase of 0.31%. Although PPI data did not have a significant impact on market expectations of a Fed rate cut, the rising inflationary pressure reflected in it still prompted investors to seek safe haven assets such as gold.
At the same time, the annual PPI rate in the United States recorded 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2%, which is the largest increase since February 2023. The monthly PPI growth rate in January was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%. This data indicates that price pressure on the US production side still exists. Although some analysts believe that the increase in annual growth rate may be affected by fluctuations in energy prices, overall, the strong PPI data has raised concerns in the market about the possibility of the Federal Reserve tightening its policies.
The impact on the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
Although the unexpected rebound in PPI data has caused some market volatility, overall trends suggest that the market's expectations for the Fed's short-term interest rate cuts have not fundamentally changed. According to analysis by well-known institutions, PPI data has not changed the market's general expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates unchanged until September. Analysts point out that despite recent fluctuations in economic data, the US labor market remains robust and consumer demand is strong, which limits the space for the Federal Reserve to take overly aggressive interest rate cuts.
The market's expectations have also been supported by recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In his speech on February 12th, Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve remains cautious about inflation, and although inflation has cooled somewhat, it still needs to maintain a tight monetary policy. He said, 'We are not far from the inflation target, but we need to maintain a tight policy until inflation falls within the target range.' This statement indicates that unless there is a fundamental change in economic data in the coming months, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive in the short term.
Stability of the labor market and initial application data
On the other hand, the initial application data released on February 13th also revealed the dynamics of the US labor market. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of February 8th was 213000, slightly lower than the market expectation of 215000, indicating that the labor market is still performing steadily. The continuous low fluctuation of initial data indicates that companies are more inclined to maintain existing employees and avoid large-scale layoffs in the current economic environment. However, at the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits remains at a relatively high level, indicating that there may be a certain degree of tension in the labor market, especially the increasingly significant supply-demand contradiction in low - and medium skilled occupations.
Analysts point out that although there has been no significant deterioration in the labor market recently, this structural tension may still become a source of future inflationary pressure, especially in terms of wage growth and consumer demand. If the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth does not slow down, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening policy for a longer period of time, which still poses significant pressure on the market's funding situation.
The impact on market trends
Overall, PPI data and initial application data revealUS economyThe complex situation faced. Although the unexpected rise in PPI has brought some concerns to the market, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts have not significantly changed. In the short term, the market will continue to monitor the economic data for the next few months, especially the performance of core CPI and PCE data. If inflation continues to show a rebound trend, the Federal Reserve may adjust its monetary policy again later this year.
Technically speaking, the rise in the gold market reflects an increase in safe haven sentiment, but due to the current price approaching the technical key level of $2910 per ounce, there may be some downward pressure in the short term. Investors need to pay attention to changes in support and resistance levels, especially after the release of PPI and other economic data, which may lead to a volatile consolidation of gold prices.
For the US dollar, the release of PPI and initial application data did not have a significant impact on its trend. Although market expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain unchanged, the trend of the US dollar in the coming months still needs to be monitored for further performance in the US economy, particularly in the areas of exports, manufacturing, and consumer spending. If the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience, the US dollar is expected to maintain its strength, especially during periods of low global risk sentiment.
summarize
Overall, the January PPI data exceeded expectations, indicating that there is still significant price pressure on the US production side, and inflation may not have been fully contained; The initial data reflects the stability of the US labor market, but also implies potential pressures in the future. Although the market has not adjusted its expectations for a Fed rate cut in the short term, investors still need to pay attention to key economic data in the coming months, especially inflation and employment indicators, to determine the Fed's next move. The market trend will continue to be influenced by these data, and the technical aspects of gold and the US dollar will become important criteria for short-term investor decisions.
