**********Spot gold closed at $2930 per ounce in Asian morning trading on Friday, close to Tuesday's historic high of $2942.68, and is expected to record its seventh consecutive week of gains. This upward trend not only reflects an increase in safe haven demand, but also aligns with the global trend of central banks increasing their holdings of gold.
This week, the gold price rose by 2.4%, and the cumulative increase since the beginning of the year has reached 12%. The market generally believes that the Trump administration's new round of trade policies may trigger market risk aversion and further push up gold prices.
Trump's tariff policies exacerbate market uncertainty
Trump signed an order on Thursday directing the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the Department of Commerce to propose a "reciprocal tariff" plan for each country. However, as the policy needs to be evaluated on a country by country basis and will not be implemented immediately in the short term, the market believes that this is more like Trump's negotiation strategy rather than a final decision.
Currently, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from Asian countries and plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States next month. This move has intensified market concerns about trade and driven the flow of safe haven fundsgold market。
Trump's trade policies have strengthened the safe haven nature of gold, and investors are concerned that his policies may push up inflation, harm economic growth, and thus enhance the attractiveness of gold
Investment bank opinion: Gold price will exceed $3000
Global investment banks have raised their gold target prices, believing that the bull market in gold is not over yet: Citigroup predicts that gold will break through $3000 per ounce in the next three months. Central banks around the world continue to increase their holdings of gold, especially in Asian countries. The inflow of funds into gold ETFs has increased, further supporting the rise in gold prices. The central bank's increase in gold holdings indicates that the uncertainty of the global monetary system is rising, and investors are seeking more stable ways to store value.
Federal Reserve policy impact: Gold benefits from expected interest rate cuts
Besides focusing on the marketTrump's policiesExternally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also being closely monitored, as lower interest rates typically benefit gold as it does not generate interest income on its own. Inflation data exceeded expectations, but core indicators were moderate. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose higher than expected in January, but some core data of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, were relatively mild. The market expects that if PCE data falls below expectations, the Federal Reserve may maintain a dovish stance.
Market expects Fed to cut interest rates ahead of schedule
The market is closely monitoring the PCE data released on February 28th to evaluate the possible policy path of the Federal Reserve. If the data is soft, the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates early, thereby further boosting gold prices. Investors are paying attention to the policy direction of the Federal Reserve, and the lower interest rate environment will support the continued rise of gold
Market outlook: Safe haven demand drives gold prices to new highs
The gold market is currently supported by multiple factors, including trade policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, increased holdings by central banks, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the short term, market volatility remains high, but if Trump's policies exacerbate economic uncertainty, gold may accelerate its rise and challenge the key psychological barrier of $3000 per ounce.
